Defence expenditure - too little, too late

If high-sounding rhetoric and promises of significant expenditure in a decade’s time is  enough to boost Australia’s defences and deter our adversaries, the latest defence announcement by the Albanese government might be judged favourably.

But they are not, which signifies the failure of the announcement by Defence Minister Richard Marles.

Consider what Mr Marles announced: 

·       $330bn defence investment program that will lift spending to 2.4 per cent of GDP by 2034;

·       Additional $50bn over the next decade and $5.7bn over the forward estimates [the next four years] to modernise the ADF with new missiles, drones, ships and aerial defence systems; and

·       $22.5bn of “reprioritisation” over the next four years and $72.8bn over a decade, representing cuts to existing Defence programs to fund new capabilities

This is claimed to deliver $63bn-$76bn for undersea warfare including nuclear submarines and underwater drones, $51bn-$69bn for new surface ships, $16bn-$21bn for guided weapons, $14bn -$18bn for missile defence, $36bn-$44bn to transform the army into an amphibious force modelled on the US Marines,$28bn-$33bn for the air force, and $14bn-$18bn to enhance northern defence bases in Darwin, far north Queensland, Tindal and the Cocos Islands.

But this comes with a spate of cuts, including delaying consideration of a fourth squadron of F-35 Joint Strike Fighters, not going ahead with new EA-18G Growler electronic attack aircraft, delaying new missiles for RAAF, and the cancellation of two large support vessels for the navy.

Worse, the  increase over the next four years is just $5.7bn. The vast majority of the proposed expenditure occurs after the forward estimates, almost all of it in the ­latter part of the decade ahead. 

Mr Marles stated that “the best time to have acted on all this is 10 or 20 years ago, and the second best time is now. That's the reality of what we face.” But his statement delays the vast majority of this expenditure until years into the future. He says that “We need to make sure we have transformational capability in place so we can resist coercion and maintain our way of life,” but fails to act in a timely manner.

The Defence Statement is a pea and thimble trick. The most generous assessment of the strategy is that “it remains to be seen” if it can be delivered. A more realistic observation is that it is “pie in the sky.”

Labor seems addicted to promises of expenditure that are not scheduled until years after it can be expected to still be in government.

Instead of raising expenditure to three per cent of GDP, the Albanese government acknowledges the threat to Australia’s national security but fails to match its own warnings.

Speaking to the defence think tank, the Williams Foundation last week, Mike Pezzullo, the former head of Home Affairs, said he believed there was now a 10 per cent chance of military conflict in the region before 2030.

“We face, before 2030, the credible prospect of having to defend Australia during a major war in the Indo Pacific,” Mr Pezzullo said.

“Today, we need to contemplate Australia, and the airspace, seas and islands that surround us, as potentially constituting a theatre in a larger Indo Pacific war.”

The history of warfare demonstrates that the use of new weapons is critical to success. The cannon ball, the crossbow, the tank, submarines, missiles and now drones are historical examples of new military technology making a critical difference. 

Yet missiles are being cut from the defence expenditure and there is no clear indication that Australia intends to acquire drones as a matter of urgency.

Australians deserve better than this strategy. 

First published in the Epoch Times Australia.