Is Dan Gone

The departure of Dan Andrews and the installation of Jacinta Allan as his successor as state premier has led many commentators to observe that Victorian politics has changed markedly as a consequence. It is clear that the former premier’s almost total control of the state has gone, but will any real changes occur? 

Jacinta Allan is the epitome of a contemporary careerist politician. After completing an arts degree at university in Bendigo, during which time she interned for a Labor minister, she then worked as a political staffer for Labor members before being elected to the Victorian Parliament at just 25 years of age. Her experience of the world outside politics seems to consist only of working as a grocery bagger at Coles while at University! Her husband also worked as a political staffer and CFMEU official.

A member of the dominant socialist left, Allan was the candidate of choice of departing premier Daniel Andrews. Close to Andrews, she was the minister responsible for the Commonwealth Games debacle and the huge cost blowouts in infrastructure projects. She may bring a new face to the role, but it is doubtful if the basic approach of the government will change. Treasurer Tim Pallas, who has overseen the crippling increase in the state’s debt, is expected to remain in his job.

The right gained the deputy premiership after playing brinkmanship in the caucus, but the final compromise was as much about the appearance of unity as anything else.  Departing premier Dan Andrews was furious that the arrangement he had stitched together for his succession appeared likely to be delayed or fray. But unlike the modern state Liberals, Labor is much more adept at managing factional differences.

This should be an opportunity for the Opposition. There has been much speculation in the Opposition in recent days that this is their chance to finally become competitive.  But can they grasp the opportunity? The signs to date have not been encouraging.

The contemporary Liberal/National coalition has a woeful record in Victoria. Since the end of the Bolte/Hamer/Thompson era in 1982, the coalition has only been in government for 11 years. Seven of those years were under the administration of the Jeff Kennett and four under the hapless Baillieu/Napthine premierships. Labor has ruled for three decades of the era: Cain/Kirner for 10 years; Bracks/Brumby for 11 years; and Andrews /Allen for 9 years to date. Labor has been in government for 20 of the past 24 years! By comparison, the federal coalition and Labor have each been in government roughly 50 per cent of the time since 1983. Liberals continue to complain about the state Labor government but seem unwilling to discuss why their own record has been so unimpressive and what they need to do to change it. Instead, the internal warfare continues. Each new dawn ends in dashed hopes. The hard political reality is that the Coalition will have to win 18 seats at the next election to be assured of forming government. They currently hold just 27 of the 88 seat Legislative Assembly.

Three weekends ago, 800 of the Liberal faithful gathered at Moonee Valley racecourse for the regular state council meeting. One of the first items on the agenda was the election of a new president of the party. There were two candidates, former state MP Phillip Davis and national deputy president Caroline Inge. Mr Davis was the candidate of the prevailing left grouping; Ms Inge the right. Davis won by the slimmest of margins, 422 to 411 votes. Mr Davis immediately called for party unity and condemned treachery. Like Moses in the dessert, political leaders tend to call for the unity of their followers. The more disunited the followers, the greater the call! 

Mr Davis has two immediate tasks if he truly wishes to create unity under his leadership. First, he should realise that if just six delegates had changed their vote, Ms Inge would have won. This result came after an unconstitutional text message campaign on the morning of the poll, urging a vote for Mr Davis. He claims not to have known about the message. Unity will only be achieved if Mr Davis reaches out to his opponents and rejects the winner-takes-all mentality of many who supported him. Unity is fostered from the top.

Secondly, he should use the moral authority vested in him to immediately begin to heal the deep divisions in the organisational and parliamentary wings of the Party. This would start with the ongoing stand-off between the Opposition leader John Pesutto and MP Moira Deeming. It is clear that there is considerable ongoing angst amongst ordinary party members about the dispute, especially the prospect of the party paying legal bills.

Opposition leader John Pesutto said that Jacinta Allan had taken over a ‘deeply divided’ party, adding it was the ‘last thing that Victorians need.’ Has he looked in the mirror lately?

Mr Davis has a considerable task if he is candid in his call for unity. In the weeks leading up to the State council, a prominent member of the parliamentary party, Matt Bach, announced his intention to resign at the end of the year. Mr Bach was the deputy leader in the upper house and one of the most energetic members of the opposition. After just three years in Spring Street, he has opted to return to teaching. 

And in the two weeks before the council, the ruling clique were busy expelling a high-profile member of the right grouping. So much for unity! Mr Davis will have to match his rhetoric with action if he wishes to lead the party out of the political desert. 

This column should not end without reference to the decision by Josh Frydenberg not to recontest the seat of Kooyong. Mr Frydenberg has accepted a high-profile position in the corporate world instead of seeking to reclaim his seat from Teal Monique Ryan. His decision is understandable. Even though much of the Teals’ shine has dulled, they are now incumbents and will be hard to defeat. Mr Frydenberg most likely wants to spend more time with his family. Whatever differences some readers may have with his decisions while  in office, he remains a talented individual with much still to contribute to public life. 

First published in the Spectator Australia