Learning from Hungary
For the past two weeks, the President of Hungary, Katalin Novák has been visiting Australia and nearby countries. She is one of less than 20 female national leaders globally, a former foreign ministry official and a minister in the national government. Yet reading, watching or listening to the Australian media, you would not have known she was here. The exception was Greg Sheridan’s interview in the Weekend Australian.
The reason for the lack of interest, I suspect, is the western liberal disdain for the government of Victor Orbán. Orbán is regularly accused of all sorts of modern ‘crimes’ by his enemies, ranging from racism and anti-semitism to fascism. Much of the criticism is propagated by individuals and groups associated with George Soros, the multi-billionaire funder of innumerable left-wing causes.
I first met the President when she invited me to present to the Budapest Demographic Summit a few years ago. This regular event is one of the foremost discussions of demography by policymakers in the world. She was then the Minister for Family Affairs, one of the more significant portfolios in the Hungarian government. I had the opportunity of meeting her again in Sydney during her visit to Australia and was able to discuss Hungary’s family and population policies.
Hungary tells a remarkable success story about its family policies and their impact on marriage and birth rates.Rather than adopting the short-term solution of attracting more and more migrants to solve the population challenges it shares with most of Europe, Hungary is attempting a long-term approach. It wants to preserve the culture of its people by encouraging and supporting Hungarian families to have babies. This is anathema to the global liberal elites.
Foreign Minister Péter Szijjártó explained the rationale behind his country's pro-family policies: ‘We understand very well that if we are not able to turn around the negative trend of demographics ... then we will definitely not win the future. And we want to win the future, so we need more kids. We need to turn around the negative tendencies, so we have put together an action plan — we have formulated our economic policy in this direction. So the question in families whether to be brave enough to have another kid must not be an economic decision anymore.’
The task was significant. By 2011, the nation’s fertility rate had collapsed to just 1.23. When it falls to such a low level, it has proven almost impossible to reverse. As I have written before, Singapore is a case study, having witnessed its fertility rate to fall to just one, despite multiple efforts to reverse it. Yet Hungary has done so, with the rate climbing to 1.56 by 2020. Compare the trends elsewhere in Europe. In the decade to 2020, fertility rates fell in Germany from 1.6 to 1.53; France from 2.01 to 1.83; Italy from 1.46 to 1.24; the UK from 1.92 to 1.56; Spain from 1.37 to 1.23; and Sweden from 1.98 to 1.66. Not only has the fertility rate risen in Hungary, the marriage rate has doubled over the decade, divorces have halved, as has the abortion rate.
How Hungary has reversed its decline should be the subject of serious study for policy makers everywhere. If the Australia’s latest Intergenerational Report is an example, most policy makers seem oblivious to the problem or unwilling to engage in the necessary discussions.
The Hungarian government has now launched two national plans to assist families. The first seven point ‘Family Protection Action Plan’ contained a number of significant economic measures. Notably, as women have children, their taxation decreases. If they have four children, they never have to pay income tax again. Under the ‘Family Protection Action Plan,’ women younger than 40 who are getting married for the first time can receive a $35,000 interest-free, general-purpose loan. If her family goes on to have three children, the loan is forgiven. Equally, student loans are also decreased with children. After the third child, they are completely wiped. Paid parental leave is provided for three years, among other measures.
As the President explained last week, the government has recently announced another phase of the family-friendly reforms. The five goals include promoting the advantages of raising children, government incentives supporting home-building, giving mothers priority ‘as the pillars of family policy,’ and turning the entire country’s operation in a family-friendly direction and protecting families with laws.
In a comment that challenges the zeitgeist, Prime Minister Orbán said: ‘We would not normally admit it, but in Hungary, women keep families together’ adding ‘if you want a future for your country, you must support mothers.’ As Novak said last week, ‘we must provide real freedom of choice for women; we must keep them from having to choose between having a family or a career.’ She added that ‘we must not let those who choose to have children to be worse off than those who do not; we must not let someone having child risk being dragged into poverty.’ The policies are also addressing how young people can find housing, a serious issue also facing Australia.
I asked the President about what policies have the greatest impact, observing that when Peter Costello, as Treasurer launched his ‘one for Mum, one for Dad and one for the country’ campaign, accompanied by economic support for families, it was aimed at encouraging families with one or more children to have another. Ms Novák concurred, noting there is often a gap between the actual number of children a family has and the parents’ aspirations for more. The later age at which couples are marrying is a factor effectively limiting the period of the couple’s fertility.
Despite condemnation by the global left, Victor Orbán has been re-elected three times since his 2010 victory. He was also prime minister from 1998 – 2002, making him the longest serving leader of his nation since the collapse of the soviet system. Not only are his family policies achieving their designed outcomes, they are popular with Hungarians. With Australia’s marriage and fertility rates declining markedly, the nation’s policy makers should be devoting more attention to the social and economic consequences, and how the trends might be reversed. An examination of Hungary’s policies would be a good place to start.
First published in the Spectator Australia.
