Elon, meet Paul

Xi Jinping, who was expected to be installed as the General Secretary of the Chinese Communist Party for a third term this week, has repeatedly stressed three ideological beliefs. The first is that socialism with ‘Chinese characteristics’ will eventually supplant capitalism. The second is that socialism is a step to the ultimate destination of communism. Thirdly, autocratic, totalitarian rule is superior to liberal democracy and will replace it globally. Xi has not hidden these beliefs; he has spoken and written about them continuously for the past decade. He has also urged the Chinese people to resolutely pursue these goals. It is mystifying that some notable people in the West continue to believe that the CCP is a benign force for good in the world, and cooperating with and appeasing it will result in global peace and harmony.

Take Elon Musk for example. After wading into the Ukrainian conflict with the suggestion that the world should ‘formally’ recognise Crimea as a part of Russia, a suggestion that has been widely criticised, the billionaire offered more unsolicited advice, this time about Taiwan. ‘My recommendation … would be to figure out a special administrative zone for Taiwan that is reasonably palatable, probably won’t make everyone happy,’ Musk told the Financial Times in an interview. ‘And it’s possible, and I think probably, in fact, that they could have an arrangement that’s more lenient than Hong Kong.’ This is naivete of the first order. Musk’s statement was welcomed by the CCP. The regime’s ambassador to the US thanked Musk, stating his comments were support for ‘peaceful unification and one country, two systems,’ to which the Taiwanese representative responded, ‘Taiwan sells many products, but our freedom and democracy are not for sale.’

Musk’s Shanghai factory produced about half of all the Tesla cars sold last year. Two days after his comment, the CCP announced that Tesla’s Model S and Model X cars would be exempt from vehicle purchase tax in China - no doubt a coincidence!

A few days later, former Australian prime minister Paul Keating proposed that Australia ditch its involvement in the QUAD and AUKUS arrangements. Mr Keating’s intervention reveal three concerning issues about his views and any influence they may have on the government.

The first is that Mr Keating nurses a deep grievance towards the United States. The US had not been ‘grateful’ enough for Australia’s contributions to global affairs, including the creation of the Asia-Pacific Economic Co-operation group, he claimed. ‘This (APEC) came out of the Australian foreign policy – this is my personal gift to the United States. They will give you no thanks and gratitude’, Mr ­Keating said. ‘The US is exceptionally ­ungrateful for people who have (supported it) for a lifetime. I am one of them. For two decades within the Labor Party … I supported the United States against what was then the pro-communist left.’ The idea of APEC was first publicly broached by Prime Minister Hawke during a speech in Seoul, Korea, on January 31, 1989. Ten months later, 12 Asia-Pacific nations met in Canberra to establish the organisation.

Secondly, Mr Keating has a misguided view of the Chinese communist regime. ‘The Chinese are not trying to overturn the existing system. Let’s get this clear: China is not the old Soviet Union. It’s not exporting ideology,’ he said. This view stands in stark contrast to most observers of China, including another former Labor Prime Minister Kevin Rudd who claims that Xi Jinping has brought communist ideology back to the core of the country’ decision-making. ‘The West ignores Xi’s ideological messaging at its own peril. No matter how abstract and unfamiliar his ideas might be, they are having profound effects on the real-world content of Chinese politics and foreign policy—and thus, as China’s rise continues, on the rest of the world,’ he said in a recent essay. ‘Xi’s ideological beliefs have committed China to the goal of building what Xi describes as a “fairer and more just” international system—one anchored in Chinese power rather than American power and one that reflects norms more consistent with Marxist-Leninist values.’ It would appear that Mr Keating is blind what Mr Rudd describes as ‘the truth about China that is hiding in plain sight.’

Thirdly, Mr Keating would have China dominate the Indo-Pacific. ‘The US could run the world co-operatively with China. In other words, the US consolidates the Atlantic, which includes bringing Russia into Europe, and in the east, the stability is provided by the Chinese,’ he said.

According to Keating, the world would acquiesce to a Chinese take-over of Taiwan. ‘Taiwan, I repeat, is not of vital Australian interest,’ he said. ‘If I’ve got any advice for them (the US) it’s to stick to strategic ambiguity like glue.’ The idea that Taiwan is not vital to Australia is short-sighted. A successful Chinese invasion of Taiwan would have one of two economic consequences; either the destruction of the island’s semi-conductor production; or the domination of the industry, if it survived invasion, by China. Either way, Australia – along with most of the world - would face disastrous economic consequences running to hundreds of billions of dollars a year.

An emboldened China would not stop at Taiwan. China’s so-called first island line – its projected primary line of defence - extends to South Korea, Japan and the Philippines. It is already seeking to extend its influence throughout the Indo-Pacific, including to islands on our doorstep. Under Keating’s scenario, the Indo-Pacific would be a vassal for Xi’s regime. A resource-rich Australia would be at the mercy of the CCP if Mr Keating’s scenario ever became a reality.

Musk and Keating are not alone. Larry Fink the CEO of the world’s largest investment house, the New York based Blackrock, has lauded investment in China, stating in a 2020 letter ‘I continue to firmly believe China will be one of the biggest opportunities for BlackRock over the long term, both for asset managers and investors, despite the uncertainty and decoupling of global systems we’re seeing today.’

Xi Jinping could not be clearer about his ambitions. Elected for a third five-year term – perhaps for life – Xi will relentlessly pursue his ideological agenda. The free world will accept the advice of Elon Musk and Paul Keating at its peril.

This column was originally published in the Spectator Australia.