Taiwan tantrum
The Taiwanese government has been admirably restrained in its response to the unprecedented petulance from the Chinese Communist Party as a result of the visit to Taipei last week by US Speaker Nancy Pelosi. While the CCP resorted to its usual wolf warrior diplomacy and economic coercion, and implemented previously planned military exercises, including sending missiles over Taiwan, the government of President Tsai Ing-wen responded with conviction and clarity. ‘This type of continued, deliberately heightened military threat, especially the dangerous launch of missiles into some of the busiest transportation corridors in the world, is irresponsible, both to Taiwan and to the entire international community. This not only undermines the status quo in the Taiwan Strait and encroaches upon our nation's sovereignty. It also creates high tensions in the Indo-Pacific region, as part of which air and maritime transportation safety, as well as the normal functioning of international trade, are all coming under unprecedented threat. We solemnly call upon China to act with reason and exercise restraint. I want to emphasize that we will neither escalate conflict nor instigate disputes. But we will resolutely defend our nation's sovereignty and security as a bulwark of democracy and freedom.’
China’s reaction was deliberate. It’s modus operandi is clear for all to see. Contrive any view or action contrary to its demands for total obedience as a slight to its national pride and an offence against its claims. It could have simply ignored the visit by Nancy Pelosi, dismissed it as a whim of the octogenarian legislator, or denounced it as a domestic political gesture.
Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan was not the problem; it has been the craven refusal by many western nations to send senior officials to the country regularly over the past few decades. Pelosi has finally done and said what should have been a regular occurrence. As she wrote in the Washington Post ‘the Chinese Communist Party’s brutal crackdown against Hong Kong’s political freedoms and human rights – even arresting Catholic Cardinal Joseph Zen – cast the promise of “one country two systems” into the dustbin. In Tibet, the CCP has led a campaign to erase the Tibetan people’s language, culture, religion and identity. In Xinjiang, Beijing is perpetrating genocide against Muslim Uighurs and other minorities. And throughout the country, the CCP targets and arrests activists, religious freedom leaders and others who dare to defy the regime. We cannot stand by as the CCP threatens Taiwan – and democracy itself.’
Why is the doctrinaire Xi so obsessed with Taiwan, a country which the CCP has never ruled? Simply put, it is a reminder of the falsity of his assertion that democracy is incompatible with Chinese culture, and that his Marxist polity is the highest form of government. It is the same reason that he had to crush all semblance of democracy in Hong Kong. He would do the same in Taiwan if he ever gained power there. Recently the CCP ambassador to France Lu Shaye asserted, ‘After the reunification with Taiwan, the Taiwanese population must be re-educated.’ Just ask the Tibetans and the Uyghurs what that means! Whether you generally support Nancy Pelosi or not is immaterial: on this life and death issue for millions of people, she has had the courage consistently to call out the perpetrators of gross abuses of human rights.
The mood of the Taiwanese was displayed prominently in a series of messages on Taipei 101, the building that dominates the city’s skyline. ‘Welcome to TW’, ‘US❤️TW’ and ‘Thank you’ were some of the messages. Privately, the government was pleased with the visit, knowing that support from a world leader is encouraging for the Taiwanese. Not that the populace panicked when the CCP chose to overreact. The Taiwanese have been living across the Strait from their bellicose neighbour for many decades, and recognise the difference between a diplomatic tantrum and an intention to invade their nation. As the Taiwanese Foreign Minister, Joseph Wu, told me during my recent visit: ‘We want to maintain the status quo which is that Taiwan has no jurisdiction over mainland China and the People's Republic of China has no jurisdiction over Taiwan. That is the reality.’ It has been the situation for 70 years.
Xi’s petulant display, contrary to his intended goal, displays his current weakness, and forewarns the world to properly prepare for possible conflict. When I asked various officials and experts during my visit what had been learnt from Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, there was a common response. An invasion has to be short and quick; but if not, then the invading country needs to be durable, both economically to withstand sanctions and pressure, and also socially to maintain political support. Neither of these prerequisites apply to China currently.
Each of the three most likely military scenarios to conquer Taiwan carry significant risks for the PLA. First, a full-scale invasion would be difficult to execute, and likely to drag on sufficiently to engender US engagement. A blockade would be difficult to maintain and would injure trading nations, including China itself. A third option, the invasion of an offshore island such as Kinmen or Matsu would be easier to achieve, but for what real gain? In Xi’s calculus, he would only declare war on Taiwan if he believes he can win. The primary audience of his fireworks display is domestic, especially in the lead-up to the Party Congress at which he is manoeuvring to be appointed for a third term as General-Secretary of the CCP. Having encouraged the Chinese people with frenzied nationalism, even the CCP found the urging by the former editor of the Global Times to shoot down Pelosi’s plane a step too far, removing the offensive tweet
This doesn’t mean that Xi can be ignored. He will continue to prod the world, looking for any weaknesses in his quest to conquer Taiwan. The reaction by the Quad nations is critical. How Japan responds will be significant. The fact that China launched missiles into Japan’s waters - intentionally or otherwise - should strengthen the resolve of the country’s leadership. But the Japanese are very cautious people. While their self defence forces are capable, their polity is dominated by a consortium of bureaucrats and the major business community. With a Cabinet reshuffle expected soon, and in the absence of Shinzo Abe, the nation’s leadership could drift into some form of accomodation with the CCP. Hopefully this does not occur, as it would be ultimately disastrous for the Japanese, along with the rest of the free, democratic world.
This article was first published in the Spectator Australia, August 2022
