What is to be done?
China’s ongoing aggression towards Taiwan has ended the naivety amongst many commentators who were seemingly unable to grasp the true nature and ambitions of the Beijing regime. Instead of becoming a rules-based member of the international order, the Chinese Communist Party under Xi Jinping has adopted the malign path of authoritarianism. While the focus of the past few weeks has been Taiwan, the CCP’s ambitions have been on display elsewhere as well. Despite the concerns of the national government, a Chinese spy ship, the Yuan Wang 5, docked in Sri Lanka, the indebted nation ultimately unable to withstand pressure from Beijing. Closer to home, the Solomon Islands government, of which 39 of 50 members have accepted monetary payments from the Chinese regime, is borrowing almost $100 million to build a Huawei mobile phone network despite indications that the project is financially unsustainable. Prime Minister Sogavare has also sought to postpone his nation’s 2023 elections, claiming that the Solomons could not afford both the elections and the Pacific Games! Sogavare has already introduced Chinese police onto the Solomons. A week ago, his government refused a routine refuelling call by a US coastguard vessel involved in protecting the fisheries of the region. Guess which country is the biggest threat to the fisheries of the South Pacific?
A feature of China’s strategy is to undermine international confidence in the ability of the United States to continue to ensure global security. It is linked to Xi Jinping’s so-called Global Security Initiative, an authoritarian alternative to the current rules-based order. US military expenditure of US $801 billion in 2021 was almost threefold China’s US $293 billion. When the expenditure of like-minded nations such as Japan, the UK and South Korea is added, China’s military is inferior despite claims from Beijing.
The danger of China’s strategy is that it will impose its will on indebted nations, as in Sri Lanka, or exploit the foibles of national leaders, as in the Solomons. Australian commentators who argue we should differentiate ourselves from the US reinforce Xi’s strategy. Xi, like President Putin, is relying also on Western naivety that he would not subdue a separate, democratic country.
To borrow a phrase from one of Xi’s heroes, Vladimir Lenin, ‘what is to be done’ about the threats to Taiwan. First, nations like Australia should continue to expose the CCP’s ambitions and reject its threats. As US Indo Pacific Coordinator Kurt Campbell stated, ‘We’ll continue to fly, sail, and operate where international law allows - including standard air and maritime transits through the Taiwan Strait in the next few weeks. We will fulfill our commitments under the Taiwan Relations Act. That includes supporting Taiwan’s self-defence. We’ll maintain our own capacity to resist any resort to force or other forms of coercion that would jeopardize Taiwan’s security, economy, or society.’ The Australian Defence Force should join other nations to regularly transit the Taiwan Strait, thus rejecting China’s incremental encroachment on the China Seas. As Campbell stated ‘ we will ensure our presence, posture, and exercises account for China’s more provocative and destabilizing behaviour.’ Equally, Beijing should also be reminded that despite its words about engaging in peaceful discussions and respecting other nations, it has refused to hold talks with the government of Taiwan since the election of President Tsai in 2016.
Secondly, we must invest more defence and in the equipment that will support allied efforts to counter the CCP.
Thirdly, nations like Australia should continue to offer rhetorical support for Taiwan, which is invaluable for the confidence of the island’s people. Visits by legislators, such as those recently from the US and Japan, should continue. Australians should join the MPs from Germany and the UK who have announced visits in coming months. Canadian MPs also plan to visit despite concerns from Justin Trudeau, who should be worried more about China’s designs in the Arctic. These visits reinforce the factual reality of Taiwanese independence and directly refute CCP bullying.
Fourthly, Australia should follow the US which has announced formal trade negotiations with Taiwan commencing this Spring. The US-Taiwan Initiative on 21st Century Trade will examine a number of issues including existing trade barriers. Not only can we support Taiwan’s entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Partnership for the Trans-Pacific (CPTPP), we can launch negotiations to establish a Free Trade Agreement with a country which is one of our biggest partners. A visit to Taipei by Australia’s Trade Minister, Don Farrell, would send a clear signal of our intent.
Fifthly, Australia must encourage diplomacy while strengthening its defence forces and building its strategic alliances. Business as usual is no longer sufficient in our own region, with China’s increasing involvement with the Pacific Islands. Foreign Minister Penny Wong’s visits to the Pacific Islands have been significant, but they must to reinforced by a heightened level of ongoing diplomacy.
Finally, the government of Taiwan should be encouraged to improve its resilience. Because the Taiwanese have become accustomed to bullying from Beijing, they are partially inured against the latest threats. As the oft-quoted truism reflects, ‘the price of liberty is eternal vigilance.’ For Taiwan, extending its universal military training, expanding its defences and ensuring its vital energy supplies can be sustained are critical. The Republic also needs to end its Covid travel restrictions to restore the flow of international visitors, including strategic experts. This would allow the country to cultivate its many friends in the West who have missed opportunities to visit and discuss important matters of mutual interest. As my recent visit attested, being able to hold face-to-face discussions is much more useful than other forms of communication.
August 2022
