Ketagalan Security Dialogue
The world is involved in a new Cold War.
This war was launched - and is being prosecuted - by the Chinese Communist regime under the leadership of President Xi Jinping.
Xi is adamant that this war is a contest between authoritarianism and democracy.
In November 2020, Xi told President-elect Biden that “democracies cannot be sustained in the 21st century, autocracies will run the world. Why? Things are changing so rapidly. Democracies require consensus, and it takes time, and you don't have the time."
Xi uses Cold War language to describe his objectives. In April 2021, the Chinese Communist Party’s People’s Daily newspaper highlighted a newly published book, Questions and Answers on the Study of Xi Jinping Thought on Socialism with Chinese Characteristics for a New Era. The book is replete with Cold War rhetoric. The world is described as a field for “competition of two ideologies and two social systems.” History should be interpreted though “the fundamental point of view of historical materialism” and truth will be found by applying Marxist tools, this truth being the truth of Marxism as formulated by Marx. Like Marx, Xi is convinced that communism will prevail. According to the Chinese leader, China is at “the centre of the world stage” and “the historical evolution and competition in the world between two ideologies is being solved in favour of Marx.”
He also accuses nations that promote democracy, human rights and the rule of law of causing wars, chaos and human displacement around the world.
In a recently released read-out of his remarks to a Politburo study session in February, Xi asserted that some Western nations ‘forcibly promote the concept and system of Western democracy and human rights . . . taking advantage of human rights issues to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries.’
Although Xi has referred to democracy ‘with Chinese characteristics’ he rejects the central tenets of it.
Speaking last year, Li Zhanshu, the Chairman of the Standing Committee of the National People’s Congress, enunciated in detail what Xi had outlined previously. Li listed five ideas that are rejected by the CCP, namely, “so-called ‘constitutionalism’, multi-party elections, the division of powers, the bicameral system, and the independence of the judiciary.” What remains of democracy after the removal of these foundational pillars?
At the most basic level, the vast majority of the Chinese people had never had the opportunity to vote for their leadership under the CCP.
The CCP also seeks to eliminate the very institutions that undergird democracy, free public discussion and civil association.
At the core of authoritarianism is a belief that the political trumps all other spheres of human endeavour.
It is naive to think this Cold War is avoidable: it is currently being prosecuted.
There are obvious features of this war apart from the constant rhetorical jousts of its perpetrators.
The use of force is threatened regularly.
From time to time, force is used, such as in the Himalayas.
Threats, both physical and intimidatory, are employed.
Threatening ‘wolf warrior’ diplomacy as become a feature of CCP statements.
Chinese military aircraft regularly breach the air warning zones of other nations, and have dangerously intercepted aircraft in international space. The CCP has also claimed that the whole of the Taiwan Straits belongs to China, contrary to all historical fact and international laws.
Xi recently authorised 59 new articles that seek to legitimise the CCP’s external use of force in other nations.
Authoritarians utilise every instrument available to them including trade sanctions and ongoing cyber warfare.
They also cooperate with other authoritarians when it suits their cause. China’s current support for Russia is an obvious example.
How do we respond?
First, we need the intellectual clarity and the moral courage to call out this Cold War and to name the perpetrators.
This is not some great game: it is a real threat to the peace and security of the world.
Secondly, like-minded nations must defend democracy against its authoritarian attackers. They must recognise that the authoritarian rulers of China will never willingly share power; they refute the practice in their own country, and would do so abroad.
Whatever its faults, liberal democracy remains the best chance to uphold the dignity and freedom of the individual, to nourish human flourishing and to promote peace and stability. It is worth defending.
Thirdly, like-minded nations must continue to uphold and defend universal human rights and the rule of law. This includes responding to the flouting of international agreements and the manipulation of international organisations.
Fourthly, they must act in unison with other democratic nations and states against authoritarian regimes. We must be clear that force will be resisted. As former Japanese Prime Minister Abe has said, there should be no ‘strategic ambiguity’ about this fundamental principle. In this context, they must recognise that Taiwan is the first chain of defence in the fight against the authoritarian CCP. If China was to invade Taiwan, the ramifications for the world, including Australia and Japan, are enormous. It must be clear that any attempted invasion of Taiwan will be resisted militarily by allied nations. More than strategic clarity, we need co-operative capabilities across a range of areas, starting with intelligence gathering and sharing, planning and interoperable exercises.
That does not mean democratic nations pursue war. To the contrary, our objectives should be to maintain peace, but that will only be achieved through strength and deterrence, not appeasement.
Fifty, they should identify and warn susceptible nations of the dangers of colonisation by authoritarian states, and support them to resist this assault on their freedoms.
Finally in my necessarily incomplete list, they must match Chinese propaganda, both in their own countries and elsewhere with a spirited defence of democracy and freedom.
What the CCP fears most is the fate of the Soviet Union, which fell ultimately not from external force, but from an unquenchable desire for freedom by many of its own people.
In this context, we should never underestimate the power of the human spirit.
Contrary to Xi, there are many good reasons to believe that his assertion is incorrect, that in fact democracy will prevail in the 21st century, but it will not be without a struggle. As an opponent of authoritarianism, Vaclav Havel, once said: the only struggle that is lost is the one we have given up on.
This is a struggle that all believers in human dignity, individual freedom and democracy must engage.
Ketagalan Forum Indo Pacific Security Dislogue, Taipei, Taiwan, July 26, 2022.
