Taiwan rejects Beijing
The Presidential Office in Taiwan is an impressive building, quite distinct from the architecture of most of Taipei. For much of a century it rose above the wooden and concrete tenements of the city, until they were gradually replaced by the taller buildings and high-rise complexes. Towering above them all today is Taipei 101, one of the world’s tallest buildings. The architecture of the Presidential Office building is not just its distinctive brick construction, but the fact it was built as the office of the Japanese Governor-General. Completed in 1919, it became the main governmental building for the new Taiwanese government of Chang Kai-shek in 1945. It is a reminder that the Chinese Communist regime has never ruled Taiwan.
That independence from the People’s Republic of China was reinforced in last weekend’s presidential election. Despite the pressure from the Chinese Communist Party, the Taiwanese people clearly rejected the overtures from Beijing to elect a more pro-China candidate. Although the polls indicating a tight race for the next president of Taiwan, the ruling Democratic People’s Party scored a convincing victory in the election. The result sends a clear message to the region, including the CCP which endeavoured to steer voters to the opposition Kuomintang (KMT).
As I wrote last week, the CCP has been feverishly working to influence the election in favour of the more pro-Beijing KMT. It was particularly critical of the DPP candidate - and soon to be President - William Lai Ching-te, describing him as a dangerous separatist. China's Taiwan Affairs Office said Lai had 'exposed his true face as a stubborn worker for Taiwanese independence and destroyer of peace across the Taiwan Strait'. The spokesman for the Office said ‘his words were full of confrontational thinking.’ The CCP suggested that the right thing for the Taiwanese to do was to vote for the opposition.
These statements were accompanied by an intense campaign, including in social media, by operatives of the CCP. But the Taiwanese people decided otherwise. Although a tight vote was expected, Lai had a clear victory. It was the first time since open elections have been conducted that one party has won a third presidential term. As the counting unfolded, the result was clear. With 79 per cent of the polling places counted, Lai led with 41.3 per cent of the vote from the KMT’s 33.2 per cent and the Taiwanese People’s Party on 25.5 per cent.
By the conclusion of polling, the DPP’s Lai Ching-te defeated his opponents Hou Yu-ih of the KMT (33.5 per cent) and Ko Wen-je of the TPP (with 26.5 per cent of the vote). However, the DPP lost its majority in the legislature, and no one party will have enough votes to rule by itself. The DPP lost 10 seats, the KMT gained 14 seats and the TPP gained three seats.
The CCP’s displeasure about a potential DPP victory has been on display for weeks. Last week, the Chinese Ambassador the Australia, Xiao Qian warned Australia that any ‘miscalculations’ with our ties to Taiwan would ‘pushed over the edge of an abyss.’ Wolf warrior diplomacy hasn’t disappeared!
The initial responses by the CCP to the election result contained the same denial that the regime practices when faced with free, democratic elections in Taiwan. Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, said ‘the results reveal that the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent the mainstream public opinion on the island,’ according to a report in the Global Times.
The CCP may try to spin that the DPP only received 40.1 per cent of the vote. But this election was complicated by the presence of the third-party candidate from the TPP, Ko Wen-je, a former mayor of Taipei who attracted a quarter of the popular vote despite his blunt personality. The TPP clearly corralled votes from both former supporters of the DPP and KMT.
The more telling issue is the failure of the KMT to gain more than a third of the vote. Although the election was fought mainly on domestic issues, the party’s support - albeit watered-down - for more open relations with Beijing was not supported by the majority of Taiwanese. Given the CCP rejected every overture from the government of out-going President Tsai Ing-wen for the past eight years, China’s comments are seen as hollow by many. The dilemma the KMT faces is that it supports the ‘One China’ policy,’ but believes it should be the government of the ‘one China’ - something that will never occur in the foreseeable future.
The geographical split of the vote demonstrates that a line can be drawn from north to south down the centre of Taiwan. To the west, facing the mainland; the prosperous, industrialised, urban Taiwan overwhelmingly voted for the DPP. To the east, the more rural, mountainous Taiwan voted for the KMT. When Lee Teng-hui democratised elections in Taiwan in the 80s, he recognised that the authoritarian era of Chang Kai-shek had ended. The question for the KMT is whether it has sufficiently recognised the significantly changed nature of the Taiwanese people. Half of the population only know a free Taiwan that is, as a matter of fact, an independent and wealthy nation, free of the constrictions of authoritarianism. Why would they entertain a future without those freedoms?
How the CCP reacts is yet to be seen. If true to form, we will witness more bullying rhetoric reinforced by aggression, especially in the China Seas, towards its opponents. Having spoken of his quest for so-called ‘reunification’, Xi Jinping, cannot alter his stance without loss of face. In any event, he believes his own rhetoric. Marxism for him is a continuous struggle, which means removing his opponents domestically, usually under the rubric of his ‘anti-corruption’ campaigns, and waging an ongoing war with his external enemies. Expect more of the same.
First published in the Spectator Australia.
