Young voters reject Beijing

William Lai’s victory in Taiwan’s presidential election last Saturday was an historic event. 

It was the first time since open elections were introduced that a party had won a presidential third term.

Despite polls predicting a tight result, Lai had a clear victory for the Democratic People’s Party.

Lai finished with 40.1 percent of the popular vote, ahead of his opponents, the KMT’s Hou Yu-ih with 33.5 percent and the TPP’s Ko Wen-je on 26.5 percent.

A number of factors appear evident in the final result.

First, the presence on the ballot of a third candidate, the TPP’s Ko Wen-je, gave voters more choice than in past presidential elections. 

There were also almost a million first time voters, constituting almost 6 per cent of the voting population. 

One early poll indicated that the TPP had considerable support amongst voters under 40

A challenge for the DPP was being seen as the ‘establishment party’, having been in office for a long period, despite its history as the original opposition to the KMT.

Unsurprisingly, domestic economic issues were of significance for young voters. The TPP was expected to benefit from the youth vote, but its message was confusing, and ultimately not significantly different to the other traditional parties.

Young voters also support an economically and politically independent Taiwan, which perhaps was the most significant issue in the last two weeks before the poll.

The result reflected a geographical split of the vote. A line can be drawn from north to south down the centre of Taiwan. To the west, facing the Chinese mainland, the prosperous, industrialised, urban Taiwan overwhelmingly voted for the DPP. To the east, the more rural, mountainous Taiwan voted for the KMT. 

For the past few decades, the demographics of the island have been moving against the KMT. As each generation emerges, it identifies itself primarily as Taiwanese, and less so ethnic Chinese.

This is gradually working against the KMT.

When Lee Teng-hui democratised elections in Taiwan in the 1980s, he recognised that the authoritarian era of Chang Kai-shek had ended. The question for the KMT is whether it has sufficiently recognised the significantly changed nature of the Taiwanese people.  More than half of the population only know a free Taiwan that is, as a matter of fact, an independent and wealthy nation, free of the constrictions of communism. Why would they entertain a future without those freedoms?

As the years pass, the natural support base for the KMT is diminishing. The party is torn between its historical roots and its desire to win government. 

This was evident in the final weeks of the campaign. First, the KMT candidate Hou attempted to downplay his party’s historical desire to create ‘One China’ - albeit under its rule!

Combined with a ham-fisted attack by the CCP on the DPP’s William Lai, the attention of voters was redirected to the China issue.

This was reinforced by comments by the former KMT president, Ma Ying-jeou who appeared on television advocating closer connections with Beijing.

Ma had made a well-publicised visit to mainland China last year, spruiking his vision of better relations between the People’s Republic of China and the Republic of China (Taiwan).

In an interview with Deutsche Welle, Ma said unification was acceptable under Taiwan’s Constitution.”

“But it has to be done peacefully and through a democratic process,” he said. “If that can be done, the chances are people in Taiwan may be interested in accepting that.”

There is minimal support for the immediate adoption of this position amongst the Taiwanese.

Ma also suggested that it was hopeless trying to defend Taiwan against China. “No matter how much you defend yourself, you can never fight a war with the mainland, you can never win,” he said. “They are too large, too much stronger than us.” 

When asked if Chinese President Xi was to be trusted, Ma replied: “As far as cross-strait relations (are concerned), you have to.”

These comments undermined Hou’s approach and directed attention back to the China issue.

While many young people may have been seeking an alternative party, they also support an economically and politically free Taiwan.

The initial reaction of the CCP to the election result was denial. Chen Binhua, a spokesperson for the State Council Taiwan Affairs Office, said ‘the results reveal that the Democratic Progressive Party cannot represent the mainstream public opinion on the island,’ according to a report in the Global Times.

It is likely that the CCP will continue its campaign of aggression towards Taiwan and other nations in the region in the coming months, especially in the lead up to President Lai’s inauguration in May. It has already criticised nations that have congratulated President-elect Lai on his victory!

 First published in the Epoch Times Australia.